FOOTBALL: Pickin' Winners - Divisional Playoffs
|
Jan 13 2011, 5:01 PM
Check out The Fantasy Geek's picks vs. the spread, courtesy of TheFantasyGeek.com — Stop by today for tips on making picks and everything fantasy football!
Saturday’s game certainly put the “wild” in Wild Card Weekend. No one saw the Seahawks upset coming—or Marshawn Lynch’s “video game” run of the year. That straight-arm on Tracy Porter was the equivalent of a backup center getting posterized on a Shawn Kemp dunk back in the day. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans practically had to pull Saints fans out of the stands to run the rock by the fourth quarter. Being on your fifth-string RB is definitely a recipe for disaster. Made for some ticked off bettors right from the outset.
I shook it off and went full speed ahead with the Colts in the second game. There were plenty of early signs that the proverbial window has slammed shut on Indy. Peyton Manning can’t pick up a yard on three consecutive third-down conversions? When has that ever happened? And the classic Colts would’ve score a touchdown on that last drive, instead of settling for a Vinatieri field goal. I’ve never heard of one bad timeout call costing a coach his job, but seriously, what the hell was Jim Caldwell thinking? Can’t the Colts just cut out the painfully bad middleman and anoint Peyton as the player/coach. Why couldn’t that work?
So with all the craziness on Saturday, I just knew things had to return to some form of normalcy early on Sunday. Thus, I switched my pick from the Chiefs to the Ravens. My buddy Scooter has been picking games at a crazy clip this season. He LOVED the Ravens. I didn’t. But the more I chatted with him and the more I looked at the Chiefs’ monumentally unimpressive game log, I just couldn’t back Kansas City. Despite a short moment of panic when Jamaal Charles darted through the defense for a long score, this game was foregone conclusion. Ultimately it was a no-doubter halfway through the third quarter. Love those.
Finally, the Packers made it three wild-card upsets and three road winners by knocking off the Eagles. It was an exciting finish, with Vick underthrowing a potential game-winner into the end zone with less than a minute left. You have to wonder what would’ve happened if David Akers had made at least one of his missed field goals. I was disappointed to see that I can’t win my “January Madness” NFL Bracket Pool because one other entrant who’s one point ahead of me also has the Pack and the Pats in the Super Bowl. Oh well, there’s always second place.
So after flirting with disaster, going 0-2 and missing my lock on Saturday, I rallied to respectability with two Sunday wins. Time to turn our attention from the week that was to the games that will be. I’m predicting a similar outcome to Wild Card Weekend. My crystal ball is showing me two Saturday upsets and two Sunday blowouts. Here are The Geek’s…
DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS
(Spreads courtesy of Sportsbook.com )
These are my irrational rationales…
SATURDAY GAMES
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)
You’ve already heard all about it. “When these teams play, it a war.” Blah, blah, blah. As tired of hearing it as we may be, it’s true. These games tend to be offensive struggles in which one play turns out to be a game-changer. In their first meeting this season, Joe Flacco led the Ravens to a last-minute touchdown and victory. In the rematch, Flacco looked like a statue, as Troy Hairamalu strip-sacked him to set up Pittsburgh’s come-from-behind win. So in a game that could easily ride on a single play, I’m taking the points. I don’t think home-field advantage is a big deal here. These teams aren’t intimidated one bit. It’s interesting that the odds makers are refusing to budge the line off of 3. If you like Pittsburgh, you have to lay a $20-$25 vig. Prediction: it’s another nail-biter, coming down to a critical miss by Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham, as Jeff Reed sits in his living room laughing maniacally.
Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)
The case for Green Bay: They’re coming in hot. They got the running game going with James Starks last week. They almost won in Atlanta a couple of months ago. They have Aaron Rodgers. Now, the case for Atlanta: They’re 18-2 at home with Matt Ryan. They have a solid running game. They’re rested. So who to pick? Well, as you should recall from a few paragraphs ago, I have Green Bay in the Super Bowl. The public and the experts both seem to be leaning toward the Packers too. That makes me nervous. Quick tangent: Did you see what happened to the line in the BCS game on Monday? It went from Auburn -2 all the way to Oregon -1. With that much money going on Oregon, I just picked Auburn on principle, despite not having seen either team play a single down. And that over/under of 74 was a gift. Okay, back to the NFL. This line moved a half point in Atlanta’s direction. It does seem like the Falcons do deserve more respect. A lot of late action could go on Green Bay over the weekend though. I’ve hitched my caboose to Green Bay. I just see them as a team getting hot at the right time. All of their six losses have been by four points or less. They weren’t ready to win close games earlier in the season. Now, they’ve figured it out, as evidenced by close wins over the Bears and Eagles. Either that, or they’ll lose on a last second field goal again. I think the green and gold will flip the script this time.
SUNDAY GAMES
Seattle @ Chicago (-10)
Yeah, I’m not buying it. Seattle played its two best games the past two weeks and they’ve already beaten Chicago this season. So why aren’t they “getting hot at the right time” like the Packers? One reason: nine losses by 15 points or more (three in December). Need another reason? No “12th Man” home-field advantage. Let me just mention that I don’t have much faith in Chicago beyond this match up. Outside of the Saints and Seahawks, I would’ve picked any other playoff team to beat Chicago. But the brackets lined up perfectly for the da Bears. After two weeks of must-wins for a severely overachieving Seattle club, I think this is the week they run out of gas. Big time.
New York Jets @ New England (-9)
Talking with my aforementioned buddy, Scooter, on Sunday afternoon, we guessed this line would be 9 or 10. As long as it was single-digits, we couldn’t see picking against the Patriots. I’ll give the Jets credit for playing pretty well at the end of the season. There’s no way they put up enough points in this game though. Mark Sanchez would’ve overthrown Yao Ming with most of his throws last week. LT and Shonn Greene can’t carry the Jets. Derrelle Revis is minimized by New England’s plethora (Three Amigos word!) of targets. The Patriots haven’t scored fewer than 31 points since Week 9. At home, I expect that trend to continue. The Jets will score more than 3 points this time. Just not nearly enough ro pose a serious threat late in the game. Lock it up!
Best of luck!
For more, visit TheFantasyGeek.com
And for more updates, follow The Geek on Twitter
Check out The Fantasy Geek's picks vs. the spread, courtesy of TheFantasyGeek.com — Stop by today for tips on making picks and everything fantasy football!
Saturday’s game certainly put the “wild” in Wild Card Weekend. No one saw the Seahawks upset coming—or Marshawn Lynch’s “video game” run of the year. That straight-arm on Tracy Porter was the equivalent of a backup center getting posterized on a Shawn Kemp dunk back in the day. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans practically had to pull Saints fans out of the stands to run the rock by the fourth quarter. Being on your fifth-string RB is definitely a recipe for disaster. Made for some ticked off bettors right from the outset.
I shook it off and went full speed ahead with the Colts in the second game. There were plenty of early signs that the proverbial window has slammed shut on Indy. Peyton Manning can’t pick up a yard on three consecutive third-down conversions? When has that ever happened? And the classic Colts would’ve score a touchdown on that last drive, instead of settling for a Vinatieri field goal. I’ve never heard of one bad timeout call costing a coach his job, but seriously, what the hell was Jim Caldwell thinking? Can’t the Colts just cut out the painfully bad middleman and anoint Peyton as the player/coach. Why couldn’t that work?
So with all the craziness on Saturday, I just knew things had to return to some form of normalcy early on Sunday. Thus, I switched my pick from the Chiefs to the Ravens. My buddy Scooter has been picking games at a crazy clip this season. He LOVED the Ravens. I didn’t. But the more I chatted with him and the more I looked at the Chiefs’ monumentally unimpressive game log, I just couldn’t back Kansas City. Despite a short moment of panic when Jamaal Charles darted through the defense for a long score, this game was foregone conclusion. Ultimately it was a no-doubter halfway through the third quarter. Love those.
Finally, the Packers made it three wild-card upsets and three road winners by knocking off the Eagles. It was an exciting finish, with Vick underthrowing a potential game-winner into the end zone with less than a minute left. You have to wonder what would’ve happened if David Akers had made at least one of his missed field goals. I was disappointed to see that I can’t win my “January Madness” NFL Bracket Pool because one other entrant who’s one point ahead of me also has the Pack and the Pats in the Super Bowl. Oh well, there’s always second place.
So after flirting with disaster, going 0-2 and missing my lock on Saturday, I rallied to respectability with two Sunday wins. Time to turn our attention from the week that was to the games that will be. I’m predicting a similar outcome to Wild Card Weekend. My crystal ball is showing me two Saturday upsets and two Sunday blowouts. Here are The Geek’s…
DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS
(Spreads courtesy of Sportsbook.com )
These are my irrational rationales…
SATURDAY GAMES
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)
You’ve already heard all about it. “When these teams play, it a war.” Blah, blah, blah. As tired of hearing it as we may be, it’s true. These games tend to be offensive struggles in which one play turns out to be a game-changer. In their first meeting this season, Joe Flacco led the Ravens to a last-minute touchdown and victory. In the rematch, Flacco looked like a statue, as Troy Hairamalu strip-sacked him to set up Pittsburgh’s come-from-behind win. So in a game that could easily ride on a single play, I’m taking the points. I don’t think home-field advantage is a big deal here. These teams aren’t intimidated one bit. It’s interesting that the odds makers are refusing to budge the line off of 3. If you like Pittsburgh, you have to lay a $20-$25 vig. Prediction: it’s another nail-biter, coming down to a critical miss by Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham, as Jeff Reed sits in his living room laughing maniacally.
Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)
The case for Green Bay: They’re coming in hot. They got the running game going with James Starks last week. They almost won in Atlanta a couple of months ago. They have Aaron Rodgers. Now, the case for Atlanta: They’re 18-2 at home with Matt Ryan. They have a solid running game. They’re rested. So who to pick? Well, as you should recall from a few paragraphs ago, I have Green Bay in the Super Bowl. The public and the experts both seem to be leaning toward the Packers too. That makes me nervous. Quick tangent: Did you see what happened to the line in the BCS game on Monday? It went from Auburn -2 all the way to Oregon -1. With that much money going on Oregon, I just picked Auburn on principle, despite not having seen either team play a single down. And that over/under of 74 was a gift. Okay, back to the NFL. This line moved a half point in Atlanta’s direction. It does seem like the Falcons do deserve more respect. A lot of late action could go on Green Bay over the weekend though. I’ve hitched my caboose to Green Bay. I just see them as a team getting hot at the right time. All of their six losses have been by four points or less. They weren’t ready to win close games earlier in the season. Now, they’ve figured it out, as evidenced by close wins over the Bears and Eagles. Either that, or they’ll lose on a last second field goal again. I think the green and gold will flip the script this time.
SUNDAY GAMES
Seattle @ Chicago (-10)
Yeah, I’m not buying it. Seattle played its two best games the past two weeks and they’ve already beaten Chicago this season. So why aren’t they “getting hot at the right time” like the Packers? One reason: nine losses by 15 points or more (three in December). Need another reason? No “12th Man” home-field advantage. Let me just mention that I don’t have much faith in Chicago beyond this match up. Outside of the Saints and Seahawks, I would’ve picked any other playoff team to beat Chicago. But the brackets lined up perfectly for the da Bears. After two weeks of must-wins for a severely overachieving Seattle club, I think this is the week they run out of gas. Big time.
New York Jets @ New England (-9)
Talking with my aforementioned buddy, Scooter, on Sunday afternoon, we guessed this line would be 9 or 10. As long as it was single-digits, we couldn’t see picking against the Patriots. I’ll give the Jets credit for playing pretty well at the end of the season. There’s no way they put up enough points in this game though. Mark Sanchez would’ve overthrown Yao Ming with most of his throws last week. LT and Shonn Greene can’t carry the Jets. Derrelle Revis is minimized by New England’s plethora (Three Amigos word!) of targets. The Patriots haven’t scored fewer than 31 points since Week 9. At home, I expect that trend to continue. The Jets will score more than 3 points this time. Just not nearly enough ro pose a serious threat late in the game. Lock it up!
Best of luck!
For more, visit TheFantasyGeek.com
And for more updates, follow The Geek on Twitter
Comments
Sign in to comment with your TypePad, Twitter, Facebook, Google, Yahoo or OpenID.