FOOTBALL: Pickin' Winners - Week 15

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I’m running a little late, so I’ll keep this brief. Last week was filled with crazy covers. In the Thursday night game, you had the Titans scoring on the last play of the game to cover. Shame on Jeff Fisher for not trying the “field goal/on-side kick/Hail Mary” combo instead of wasting the clock away. On Sunday, the Redskins missed an extra point, which gave the Buccaneers a win, but cost them a shot at a cover in OT. And Sunday night, the Cowboys scored a late TD to cover against the Eagles. Of course, I got all of those games wrong. But there was some salvation in the “real” Monday Night Football game. I switched my pick to the Ravens, and they pulled off an unlikely cover with the rare OT pick-6.

Overall, I managed another 8-8 week. Still camped on two games over .500. Time for a late-season run, starting with the…

WEEK 15 PICKS

(Spreads based on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em)

These are my irrational rationales…

THURSDAY GAME

Plus one already, after I selected the Chargers -8.5. Look, they had a fluke loss vs. Oakland, but this team is a force to be reckoned with.

SUNDAY GAMES

With the return of Colt McCoy, I’m back on the Browns bandwagon and expect them to eke out a win over Cincy.

Rex Grossman?! Gross, man. I’ll take the Cowboys over the ‘Skins, as it appears that Washington has put a stamp on this season and mailed it in.

The Titans have lost six in a row. Make it seven, as the Texans pick up where Peyton Manning left off…picking apart a regressing Tennessee defense.

This is the year the Colts finally lose the AFC South. The Jaguars are playing some physical football on offense and will at least make this close game.

Matt Cassel is a gametime decision for the Chiefs-Rams game. I bet he plays, but it’ll be all about Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, as the Chiefs grind out a tough road win.

I just can’t get excited about Chad, Ricky, Ronnie and Brandon these days. I’m feeling a solid game for Stevie Johnson though. I’ll grab the Bills and the points.

I’ve been riding the Bucs, but I think 6.5 is too much for them to be giving to the Lions with all the key injuries Tampa Bay has suffered lately.

A 1-12 team is favored by 2.5 points? Wow. It’s a sad day when Jimmy Clausen is actually better than the other team’s quarterback. I’ll take the Panthers in this uggggggggly matchup.

Shhhhh. The best kept secret in the NFL is somehow the surging defending champions. Baltimore’s not-so-vaunted defense won’t be able to contain Brees and the Saints.

The Eagles-Giants tilt is one of several top-quality matchups this week. Philly’s defense is a mess, but they get back their top cover guy in Asante Samuel, so I’ll go with the Eagles in a tight one.

I know Atlanta is a dome team that sometimes struggles in the elements. But Seattle is just plain bad. Gimme the Falcons and lock it up!

Both of these teams are more overrated than all of the American Idol winners combined. Rex Ryan’s crew has been exposed, but with no Troy Palomalu for Pittsburgh, I think the Jets can hang with the black and gold.

Looks like the Tim Tebow experiment is a go for Denver. Doesn’t really matter who the QB is, I always pick against a guy making his first NFL start. Especially on the road. So I’ll take the Raiders.

FOOTBALL NIGHT IN AMERICA

Speaking of QBs making their first NFL start. Traveling to New England is no way for Matt Flynn to get comfortable in the Packers offense. The Patriots should cruise yet again.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

With the Metrodump inactive for MNF, this game will likely be played in sub-zero wind chill. But the bigger factor for me is that there’s yet another quarterback slated to make his NFL debut: the Viking’s Joe Webb. I kinda like his speed, but facing the Bears defense will be a harsh welcome.

DID YOU KNOW?

Historically the Super Bowl Line provided by BetUS has fallen in to the single-digits. It has only breached the double-digit range 29.5 percent of the time. Furthermore, the Super Bowl line has been posted at less than a touchdown just 34.0 percent of the time.  Since there isn’t as much parity in the 2010 NFL betting season, the Super Bowl line will be a hotly contested number. That’s exactly how it should be.

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