PREDICTING UFC: AN IDIOT'S PERSPECTIVE, TAKE DOS

In case there are some of you (which is to say “all of you”) who are unfamiliar with me, hello.  I’m Geoff.  These are my musings.

Not that any of you bet on sports outside the gloriously filthy confines of Las Vegas, but, hypothetically, you might have thought of wagering on the outcome of certain UFC bouts.  And if you did such a thing, which you wouldn’t, you might realize something: that UFC is like college basketball.  On any given day, any fighter can beat any other fighter.  A lucky punch, a perfect gameplan, a lapse in concentration – any of these can send the favorite sprawling.

In other words, predicting the outcome of any one UFC match can be tricky.  With that in mind, allow me to reintroduce you to the patented system I’ve developed.  I propose that, if followed, it will generally win you 80% of your assuredly-non-monetary UFC bets, especially when you have no clue who the hell the fighters are.  Ladies and Gentlemen, I hereby re-expose you to the B.A.T.H. System:

Bet Against the Honkee.

Look, I’m white, and if there’s one thing I know, it’s that white people are only good at four things: being in the military, banking, religious zealotry, and oppressing every other ethnic group via the military, banking and religious zealotry.  In general, we’re not fighters.  So doesn’t it make sense that the darker you get, the better fighter you are?  In my feeble, prejudice-riddled mind it does!  But every theory needs scientific testing grounds to prove itself, so let’s put it to task for this weekend’s UFC 110.

Once again, there are only four situations in which to abandon the BATH System:

1. If the Honkee is Georges St-Pierre.

2. If the Non-Honkee is Caol Uno.

3. If the Non-Honkee is Houston Alexander.

4. If the Non-Honkee is Cheick Congo.

Since none are involved in UFC 110 this Friday via Sydney, Australia, feel free to BATH away.  Here we go:

UFC 110: WHERE THE FUCK ARE ALL THE GODDAMNED MINORITIES?

JAMES TE JUNA VS. IGOR POKRAJAC

Hmmmm…UFC.com suspiciously lists no photo for Te Juna, and “Igor Pokrajac” was apparently a war criminal in the last Tom Clancy novel.  Yes, “Te Juna” sounds less white, but how much credence can you give a guy with no picture?  This is easy.

PREDICTION: Pokrajac.

CB “THE DOBERMAN” DOLLAWAY VS. GORAN RELJIC

Are you being serious?  Even if “CB Dollaway” DIDN’T sound like the name of the local Bank of America Assistant Branch Manager, Reljic’s body looks like it was sculpted by the people who used to make GI JOEs.  In other words, unless his legs are connected to his torso with a rubber band, I’m pretty sure he’s an indestructible soldier of mayhem.

PREDICTION: Reljic

CHRIS “LIGHTS OUT” LYTLE VS. BRIAN FOSTER

Woof.  This one looks like a draw.  I know I’ve seen Lytle fight, but I couldn’t recall anything he did in those fights, which is really bad.  On one hand, Brian Foster looks like he just got out of the military.  On the other hand, Lytle is unmemorable, old (he’s had frigging 58 professional fights that we know of) and for God’s sake, if you’re going to do it, why not make it “LYTES Out”?  I scoff at your lack of ironically visual wit, Lytle.

PREDICTION: Foster.

STEPHAN “AMERICAN PSYCHO” BONNAR VS. KRZYSZTOF “THE POLISH EXPERIMENT” SOSZYNSKI

Siiiiiiiiiiiigh…it’s so white in here that it looks like it’s snowing.  Still…Stephan Bonnar is insanely Caucasian, a mediocre fighter, and his ribcage scares the shit out of me.  The Guy Whose Name I’m Not Trying to Type Again Because I Value My Fingers apparently missed his calling as either a character in the PUNCH-OUT!! franchise or as the face of all Slavic-related nightmares.  Either way, how do you bet against someone called “The Polish Experiment”?

PREDICTION: The Polish Experiment.

ELVIS “THE KING OF ROCK N RUMBLE” SINOSIC VS. CHRIS HASEMAN

Hey, can we cram some more Eastern Europeans in here so the BATH System is rendered totally useless?  Damn.

I hate picking a guy who’s not only 8-12-2 as a fighter but also has the world’s most idiotic nickname.  All the same, he’s hairy as hell and super-mean-looking, and Haseman didn’t approve a picture.  But fuck you anyway, Elvis Sinosic.

PREDICTION: Sinosic (kill me).

MIRKO CRO COP VS. BEN ROTHWELL

No fighter has ever let me down as often and as maddeningly as Cro Cop, who basically crumpled like a bitch when hit with a kick from Gabriel Gonzaga that was stolen DIRECTLY FROM HIS OWN REPERTOIRE.  But Ben Rothwell looks like he just finished installing my air conditioning and then passed out in a bar bathroom after doing shots with his buddies and verbally assaulting a very scared waitress.  Also, I never learn my lessons.

PREDICTION: Cro Cop (I’m very, very stupid).

KEITH “THE DEAN OF MEAN” JARDINE VS. RYAN “DARTH” BADER

You never, ever, ever know which Jardine is going to show up.  Could be the guy that wasted Liddell and Forrest Griffin or the guy that donked off to Stephan Bonnar and Houston Alexander (WOW!!!!!!).  On the flipside, Bader is undefeated, carries a simply awesome nickname, and has upwards of 72 visible abs.

PREDICTION: Bader (Jardine lost to Bonnar AND Alexander!!!!!).

JOE “DADDY” STEVENSON VS. GEORGE SOTIROPOULOS

“Daddy”?  “Daddy”?  Seriously?  I had respect for Stevenson until I realized that.  Really?  “Daddy”?  Anyway, Sotiropoulous rules, so it kind of dodesn’t matter…although I now want this to be a straight-up BEATING.

PREDICTION: Sotiropoulos (preferably by Murder-Death-Kill).

WANDERLEI “THE AXE MURDERER” SILVA VS. MICHAEL “THE COUNT” BISPING

C’mon, Dana White, you couldn’t throw ONE fucking black dude into the mix?  I hate you right now.

This one’s tough.  On the surface of the BATH System, you go with Silva because he looks like a cross between a lagoon creature and a Cro-Magnon lagoon creature.  But I gotta go with my gut here knowing the fighters.  Sure, Bisping got decked so hard by Dan Henderson that he forgot he was British for six hours, but he looked both potent and hungry in his last fight, a flat mauling of Denis Kang.  And Silva hasn’t looked good at ALL lately, losing five of his last six.  Uuuuuuugh…

PREDICTION: Bisping.

MAIN CARD: MINOTAURO NOGUIERA VS. CAIN VELASQUEZ

Some may find this a deceptively complicated fight to pick, but I feel the opposite.  It looks simple to me.  Velasquez has looked absolutely unstoppable.  He’s All-World.  He’s been up against experienced, seasoned fighters and taken a piss all over them.  I think he’s one of UFC’s next big stars.  Is Nogueria the guy to derail all that?  Unless beating Velasquez is an immediate cure for Cauliflower Ear, probably not.

PREDICTION: Velasquez.

Your slings and arrows are always appreciated, both pre- and post-fight.