The Fantasy Geek’s Wild Card Picks
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Jan 8 2010, 3:01 PM
Welcome to the playoff edition of The Geek’s Picks. It’s time to bring my proverbial “A game,” to “go big or go home” and to “come strong or don’t come at all.” What percent am I gonna give? That’s right, 110%. With only four games instead of 16, I’ll go into a little more detail on each match up. You can also check out my pick for Super Bowl XLIV at http://thefantasygeek.com .
WILD CARD ROUND GAMES (Home team in CAPS)
Every game’s a rematch, with repeats of three Week 17 match ups. You know what that means. Lines are going be heavily influenced by what the public witnessed just 5 days ago. Every spread is 3.5 points or less, so it’s going to be an interesting weekend.
Jets +2.5 over BENGALS
Is this really a playoff game? Neither one of these teams is a serious contender. This feels like a ho-hum AFC match up that would typically garner little fanfare. And honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this game. I’ve gone back and forth…but ultimately have determined that both of these teams have serious flaws and inspire ZERO confidence.
First meeting: Week 17, Jets 37, Bengals 0. I think you can take a little bit from the Jets blowout. Sure, the Bengals had little to play for and they rested a couple of key players, but a drubbing like that certainly can’t boost your confidence.
The Jets were 4-7 since starting the season 3-0 (then they were handed two gimme wins from teams that weren’t completely trying). The collective record of the four teams they beat during that stretch: 22-42. Not exactly high-quality wins. I’ve said it all year long. The Jets just aren’t good. They’ve got a great pass defense and a decent running game, but not much else. Of course, you’re going to be the top rushing team when you don’t trust your rookie quarterback to throw the ball. At all.
The Bengals are not playing their best football when it counts. The “Cardiac Cats” as Gus Johnson calls them, went into cardiac arrest late in the season, dropping three out of their past four games. In fact their last quality win was way back in Week 10 against Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Jets 16, Bengals 13. Gotta go with the best of the worst here. Man, I think the Jets are terrible. But I think they go into Cincinnati and win. Somehow. Oh, and I like the under (33.5) in this game. Both defenses are good. Both offenses aren’t.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Eagles
You know the old adage, “It’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season.” Well, that’s exactly what the Cowboys will be trying to do this week. The talent level in this game dwarfs that of Saturday’s early game participants.
First two meetings: Week 9, Cowboys 20, Eagles 16. Week 17, Cowboys 24, Eagles 0. The Eagles were
playing for a bye last week, so it’s not like they were mailing it in.
The Eagles played four games against 2010 playoff teams this season. Guess what? They lost them all. Yeah, Philly came into Week 17 winners of six in a row, but none of the six were top 10 football teams. Thus, I think the Eagles’ success is a bit hollow. Throw in the fact that they can never pick up first downs on third and short, and I think the Eagles will have to make plays on defense and special teams to avoid the sweep.
The Cowboys have won three straight, the last two being shutouts. The defense is flat-out ballin’ right now. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are getting great pressure on opposing QBs and the secondary,
which I thought was Dallas’ Achilles heel, has performed admirably. Outside of the Giants, no team has scored more than 21 points against the starred ones. Romo and company rarely as good you think they should be. But they can grind it out and come up wit key drives when they need to.
The Pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 17. The third time won’t be a charm for the Brotherly Lovers. As long as DeSean Jackson doesn’t completely go off, the Cowboys will be off Minnesota next week.
PATRIOTS -3 over Ravens
As a Patriots fan, I would’ve been a lot happier if New England was playing the Jets or Bengals. The line says these two teams are even, the Pats giving 3 for home-field advantage. Sounds about right.
First meeting: Week 4, Patriots 27, Ravens 21. But Baltimore was driving for a go-ahead score late in the game, only to lose because of a couple of dropped passes.
The Ravens lost five games by 3 points or less. That tells you they weren’t far off from being a 14-2 team. But it also tells you they can’t get it done in crunch time. Their most recent wins have come against Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Denver. Not a murderer’s row. The defense is still solid, but not what it once was. The Ravens are weak at cornerback, so look for the Pats to come out passing, even without Wes Welker. Joe Flacco will need to have a remarkable game for the birds pull off the upset.
The Patriots had a pretty disappointing regular season. They just never seemed to be firing on all cylinders. Nearly every game with an “@” on the schedule has an “L” right after it. But the Patriots road struggles are next week’s concern. They’ve actually gone undefeated at home, so they’ll be confident in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Losing Welker is a big blow, but Julian Edelman and Kevin Faulk will be there for Brady when he’s pressured.
The Pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 20. This game will be close in the fourth quarter. And true to Baltimore’s disappointing form, they’ll have a shot at victory, but will fall just short.
Packers pk over CARDINALS
Will last year’s Cinderella story be this year’s stagecoach that turns into a pumpkin? You never know with Cardinals. They certainly flipped a switch last postseason, so anything’s possible. But this time, they’re on everyone’s radar, so it won’t be easy to sneak attack opponents.
First meeting: Week 17, Packers 33, Cardinals 7. The Pack played their starters most of the way, the Cards didn’t. So there’s not much to take away from that score. Though in terms of momentum, Green Bay has it and Arizona doesn’t.
The Packers are The Geek’s (and many other prognosticators’) playoff sleeper this year. They have all the ingredients you want to see for a deep playoff run. Lots of offensive weapons. Tough run defense. Coming in hot. Only a fluky loss to Pittsburgh prevented Green Bay from going unbeaten in the second half. Early on, the O-line struggled in pass protection, but they’ve gotten healthy, while Aaron Rodgers has become a master of stepping up in the pocket and making plays on the run.
The Cardinals are certainly dangerous with Warner at the helm. I’m just sold on them, due to their piece-o’-cake schedule. They did look impressive when they opened up a can of whoop ass on Minnesota…but we’ve since seen that the Vikes aren’t all that great outdoors. It doesn’t help that Anquan Boldin is a game-time decision. You have to think he’ll give it a go, if at all possible. But he won’t be 100% and that may actually hurt the team.
The Pick: Packers 34, Cardinals 24. This game will have the most offense of the weekend. But the visiting team will pick up where they left off last week. Green Bay is going to be Arizona’s wicked stepsister this year.
LAST WEEK: 12-4
SEASON: 134-122
LOCKS OF THE WEEK: 8-4
For more fantasy sports stuff and to see The Geek’s Super Bowl pick, go to http://thefantasygeek.com
Want fantasy basketball updates? Follow Si, the hoops guy, at http://twitter.com/SiKorot
Fantasy Hoops Owners: Stop by Monday 6-7 pm ET for the Hoops Help chat session with Si!
Welcome to the playoff edition of The Geek’s Picks. It’s time to bring my proverbial “A game,” to “go big or go home” and to “come strong or don’t come at all.” What percent am I gonna give? That’s right, 110%. With only four games instead of 16, I’ll go into a little more detail on each match up. You can also check out my pick for Super Bowl XLIV at http://thefantasygeek.com .
WILD CARD ROUND GAMES (Home team in CAPS)
Every game’s a rematch, with repeats of three Week 17 match ups. You know what that means. Lines are going be heavily influenced by what the public witnessed just 5 days ago. Every spread is 3.5 points or less, so it’s going to be an interesting weekend.
Jets +2.5 over BENGALS
Is this really a playoff game? Neither one of these teams is a serious contender. This feels like a ho-hum AFC match up that would typically garner little fanfare. And honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this game. I’ve gone back and forth…but ultimately have determined that both of these teams have serious flaws and inspire ZERO confidence.
First meeting: Week 17, Jets 37, Bengals 0. I think you can take a little bit from the Jets blowout. Sure, the Bengals had little to play for and they rested a couple of key players, but a drubbing like that certainly can’t boost your confidence.
The Jets were 4-7 since starting the season 3-0 (then they were handed two gimme wins from teams that weren’t completely trying). The collective record of the four teams they beat during that stretch: 22-42. Not exactly high-quality wins. I’ve said it all year long. The Jets just aren’t good. They’ve got a great pass defense and a decent running game, but not much else. Of course, you’re going to be the top rushing team when you don’t trust your rookie quarterback to throw the ball. At all.
The Bengals are not playing their best football when it counts. The “Cardiac Cats” as Gus Johnson calls them, went into cardiac arrest late in the season, dropping three out of their past four games. In fact their last quality win was way back in Week 10 against Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Jets 16, Bengals 13. Gotta go with the best of the worst here. Man, I think the Jets are terrible. But I think they go into Cincinnati and win. Somehow. Oh, and I like the under (33.5) in this game. Both defenses are good. Both offenses aren’t.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Eagles
You know the old adage, “It’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season.” Well, that’s exactly what the Cowboys will be trying to do this week. The talent level in this game dwarfs that of Saturday’s early game participants.
First two meetings: Week 9, Cowboys 20, Eagles 16. Week 17, Cowboys 24, Eagles 0. The Eagles were
playing for a bye last week, so it’s not like they were mailing it in.
The Eagles played four games against 2010 playoff teams this season. Guess what? They lost them all. Yeah, Philly came into Week 17 winners of six in a row, but none of the six were top 10 football teams. Thus, I think the Eagles’ success is a bit hollow. Throw in the fact that they can never pick up first downs on third and short, and I think the Eagles will have to make plays on defense and special teams to avoid the sweep.
The Cowboys have won three straight, the last two being shutouts. The defense is flat-out ballin’ right now. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are getting great pressure on opposing QBs and the secondary,
which I thought was Dallas’ Achilles heel, has performed admirably. Outside of the Giants, no team has scored more than 21 points against the starred ones. Romo and company rarely as good you think they should be. But they can grind it out and come up wit key drives when they need to.
The Pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 17. The third time won’t be a charm for the Brotherly Lovers. As long as DeSean Jackson doesn’t completely go off, the Cowboys will be off Minnesota next week.
PATRIOTS -3 over Ravens
As a Patriots fan, I would’ve been a lot happier if New England was playing the Jets or Bengals. The line says these two teams are even, the Pats giving 3 for home-field advantage. Sounds about right.
First meeting: Week 4, Patriots 27, Ravens 21. But Baltimore was driving for a go-ahead score late in the game, only to lose because of a couple of dropped passes.
The Ravens lost five games by 3 points or less. That tells you they weren’t far off from being a 14-2 team. But it also tells you they can’t get it done in crunch time. Their most recent wins have come against Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Denver. Not a murderer’s row. The defense is still solid, but not what it once was. The Ravens are weak at cornerback, so look for the Pats to come out passing, even without Wes Welker. Joe Flacco will need to have a remarkable game for the birds pull off the upset.
The Patriots had a pretty disappointing regular season. They just never seemed to be firing on all cylinders. Nearly every game with an “@” on the schedule has an “L” right after it. But the Patriots road struggles are next week’s concern. They’ve actually gone undefeated at home, so they’ll be confident in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Losing Welker is a big blow, but Julian Edelman and Kevin Faulk will be there for Brady when he’s pressured.
The Pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 20. This game will be close in the fourth quarter. And true to Baltimore’s disappointing form, they’ll have a shot at victory, but will fall just short.
Packers pk over CARDINALS
Will last year’s Cinderella story be this year’s stagecoach that turns into a pumpkin? You never know with Cardinals. They certainly flipped a switch last postseason, so anything’s possible. But this time, they’re on everyone’s radar, so it won’t be easy to sneak attack opponents.
First meeting: Week 17, Packers 33, Cardinals 7. The Pack played their starters most of the way, the Cards didn’t. So there’s not much to take away from that score. Though in terms of momentum, Green Bay has it and Arizona doesn’t.
The Packers are The Geek’s (and many other prognosticators’) playoff sleeper this year. They have all the ingredients you want to see for a deep playoff run. Lots of offensive weapons. Tough run defense. Coming in hot. Only a fluky loss to Pittsburgh prevented Green Bay from going unbeaten in the second half. Early on, the O-line struggled in pass protection, but they’ve gotten healthy, while Aaron Rodgers has become a master of stepping up in the pocket and making plays on the run.
The Cardinals are certainly dangerous with Warner at the helm. I’m just sold on them, due to their piece-o’-cake schedule. They did look impressive when they opened up a can of whoop ass on Minnesota…but we’ve since seen that the Vikes aren’t all that great outdoors. It doesn’t help that Anquan Boldin is a game-time decision. You have to think he’ll give it a go, if at all possible. But he won’t be 100% and that may actually hurt the team.
The Pick: Packers 34, Cardinals 24. This game will have the most offense of the weekend. But the visiting team will pick up where they left off last week. Green Bay is going to be Arizona’s wicked stepsister this year.
LAST WEEK: 12-4
SEASON: 134-122
LOCKS OF THE WEEK: 8-4
For more fantasy sports stuff and to see The Geek’s Super Bowl pick, go to http://thefantasygeek.com
Want fantasy basketball updates? Follow Si, the hoops guy, at http://twitter.com/SiKorot
Fantasy Hoops Owners: Stop by Monday 6-7 pm ET for the Hoops Help chat session with Si!
WILD CARD ROUND GAMES (Home team in CAPS)
Every game’s a rematch, with repeats of three Week 17 match ups. You know what that means. Lines are going be heavily influenced by what the public witnessed just 5 days ago. Every spread is 3.5 points or less, so it’s going to be an interesting weekend.
Jets +2.5 over BENGALS
Is this really a playoff game? Neither one of these teams is a serious contender. This feels like a ho-hum AFC match up that would typically garner little fanfare. And honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this game. I’ve gone back and forth…but ultimately have determined that both of these teams have serious flaws and inspire ZERO confidence.
First meeting: Week 17, Jets 37, Bengals 0. I think you can take a little bit from the Jets blowout. Sure, the Bengals had little to play for and they rested a couple of key players, but a drubbing like that certainly can’t boost your confidence.
The Jets were 4-7 since starting the season 3-0 (then they were handed two gimme wins from teams that weren’t completely trying). The collective record of the four teams they beat during that stretch: 22-42. Not exactly high-quality wins. I’ve said it all year long. The Jets just aren’t good. They’ve got a great pass defense and a decent running game, but not much else. Of course, you’re going to be the top rushing team when you don’t trust your rookie quarterback to throw the ball. At all.
The Bengals are not playing their best football when it counts. The “Cardiac Cats” as Gus Johnson calls them, went into cardiac arrest late in the season, dropping three out of their past four games. In fact their last quality win was way back in Week 10 against Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Jets 16, Bengals 13. Gotta go with the best of the worst here. Man, I think the Jets are terrible. But I think they go into Cincinnati and win. Somehow. Oh, and I like the under (33.5) in this game. Both defenses are good. Both offenses aren’t.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Eagles
You know the old adage, “It’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season.” Well, that’s exactly what the Cowboys will be trying to do this week. The talent level in this game dwarfs that of Saturday’s early game participants.
First two meetings: Week 9, Cowboys 20, Eagles 16. Week 17, Cowboys 24, Eagles 0. The Eagles were
playing for a bye last week, so it’s not like they were mailing it in.
The Eagles played four games against 2010 playoff teams this season. Guess what? They lost them all. Yeah, Philly came into Week 17 winners of six in a row, but none of the six were top 10 football teams. Thus, I think the Eagles’ success is a bit hollow. Throw in the fact that they can never pick up first downs on third and short, and I think the Eagles will have to make plays on defense and special teams to avoid the sweep.
The Cowboys have won three straight, the last two being shutouts. The defense is flat-out ballin’ right now. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are getting great pressure on opposing QBs and the secondary,
which I thought was Dallas’ Achilles heel, has performed admirably. Outside of the Giants, no team has scored more than 21 points against the starred ones. Romo and company rarely as good you think they should be. But they can grind it out and come up wit key drives when they need to.
The Pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 17. The third time won’t be a charm for the Brotherly Lovers. As long as DeSean Jackson doesn’t completely go off, the Cowboys will be off Minnesota next week.
PATRIOTS -3 over Ravens
As a Patriots fan, I would’ve been a lot happier if New England was playing the Jets or Bengals. The line says these two teams are even, the Pats giving 3 for home-field advantage. Sounds about right.
First meeting: Week 4, Patriots 27, Ravens 21. But Baltimore was driving for a go-ahead score late in the game, only to lose because of a couple of dropped passes.
The Ravens lost five games by 3 points or less. That tells you they weren’t far off from being a 14-2 team. But it also tells you they can’t get it done in crunch time. Their most recent wins have come against Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Denver. Not a murderer’s row. The defense is still solid, but not what it once was. The Ravens are weak at cornerback, so look for the Pats to come out passing, even without Wes Welker. Joe Flacco will need to have a remarkable game for the birds pull off the upset.
The Patriots had a pretty disappointing regular season. They just never seemed to be firing on all cylinders. Nearly every game with an “@” on the schedule has an “L” right after it. But the Patriots road struggles are next week’s concern. They’ve actually gone undefeated at home, so they’ll be confident in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Losing Welker is a big blow, but Julian Edelman and Kevin Faulk will be there for Brady when he’s pressured.
The Pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 20. This game will be close in the fourth quarter. And true to Baltimore’s disappointing form, they’ll have a shot at victory, but will fall just short.
Packers pk over CARDINALS
Will last year’s Cinderella story be this year’s stagecoach that turns into a pumpkin? You never know with Cardinals. They certainly flipped a switch last postseason, so anything’s possible. But this time, they’re on everyone’s radar, so it won’t be easy to sneak attack opponents.
First meeting: Week 17, Packers 33, Cardinals 7. The Pack played their starters most of the way, the Cards didn’t. So there’s not much to take away from that score. Though in terms of momentum, Green Bay has it and Arizona doesn’t.
The Packers are The Geek’s (and many other prognosticators’) playoff sleeper this year. They have all the ingredients you want to see for a deep playoff run. Lots of offensive weapons. Tough run defense. Coming in hot. Only a fluky loss to Pittsburgh prevented Green Bay from going unbeaten in the second half. Early on, the O-line struggled in pass protection, but they’ve gotten healthy, while Aaron Rodgers has become a master of stepping up in the pocket and making plays on the run.
The Cardinals are certainly dangerous with Warner at the helm. I’m just sold on them, due to their piece-o’-cake schedule. They did look impressive when they opened up a can of whoop ass on Minnesota…but we’ve since seen that the Vikes aren’t all that great outdoors. It doesn’t help that Anquan Boldin is a game-time decision. You have to think he’ll give it a go, if at all possible. But he won’t be 100% and that may actually hurt the team.
The Pick: Packers 34, Cardinals 24. This game will have the most offense of the weekend. But the visiting team will pick up where they left off last week. Green Bay is going to be Arizona’s wicked stepsister this year.
LAST WEEK: 12-4
SEASON: 134-122
LOCKS OF THE WEEK: 8-4
For more fantasy sports stuff and to see The Geek’s Super Bowl pick, go to http://thefantasygeek.com
Want fantasy basketball updates? Follow Si, the hoops guy, at http://twitter.com/SiKorot
Fantasy Hoops Owners: Stop by Monday 6-7 pm ET for the Hoops Help chat session with Si!
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